Brief analysis of the operation of Chinese industrial textile industry in the first quarter of 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, the global economy recovered slowly, the growth momentum of major economies showed a trend of differentiation, and the US tariff policy was bringing new uncertainty shocks to the global trade system; the domestic economic performance exceeded market expectations, and the package of stock and incremental policies worked together to show a new and better start. my country's industrial textile industry continued its recovery momentum in 2024, the industry's industrial added value maintained an upward trend, a number of major economic indicators were stable and rising, and exports continued to grow steadily overall. According to the association's survey, in March 2025, my country's industrial textile industry prosperity index rebounded by 2.2 points month-on-month to 54.8, which was in the micro-prosperity range. In terms of production, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the market demand for non-woven fabrics remained strong from January to March 2025, and the output of non-woven fabrics of enterprises above designated size increased by 8.9% year-on-year; the output of cord fabrics of enterprises above designated size decreased slightly by 0.4% year-on-year. In terms of economic benefits, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2025, the operating income and total profits of large and medium-sized enterprises in the industrial textile industry increased by 6.7% and 10.9% year-on-year respectively, and the operating profit margin was 3.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point year-on-year.

In terms of international trade, according to China Customs data (customs 8-digit HS code statistics), the export value of my country's industrial textile industry from January to March 2025 was US$10.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; the import value of the industry was US$1.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In terms of products, industrial coated fabrics are the product with the largest export value in the industry, with an export value of US$1.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; the export value of felt/tents is US$1.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; the overseas demand for non-woven fabrics and their products remains stable, with the export volume of non-woven fabric rolls reaching 393,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and the export value reaching US$1.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The export values of disposable sanitary products (diapers, sanitary napkins, etc.) and wipes (excluding wet wipes) were US$920 million and US$400 million, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and 4.1%, respectively; among traditional products, the export of cord (cable) belt textiles, canvas, and industrial glass fiber products has increased to varying degrees, and the export value growth rate of leather-based fabrics and packaging textiles has declined slightly. The United States, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and India are the main export destinations for my country's industrial textiles, accounting for about one-third of the total exports. From January to March 2025, my country's exports of industrial textiles to the United States, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea showed varying degrees of growth, while exports to India fell by 2.5% year-on-year. Affected by the US government's tariff policy, a "stockpiling wave" appeared in the US domestic market, pushing my country's exports of industrial textiles to the United States to increase by 9%.

At present, the global economic downside risk has increased significantly. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report on April 22, lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the forecast in January this year; domestic macroeconomic policies have been effective, the consumer market has continued to heat up, and the supply-demand pattern has improved. Looking forward to the second quarter, the favorable factors that supported the good start of the national economy in the first quarter will continue to play a role, especially the country's introduction of a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, which will have a positive impact on related industries, but the industry still needs to be vigilant about the impact of the imbalance between supply and demand in some areas; the global trade pattern is undergoing profound changes, and the US tariff policy may trigger a deep reconstruction and regional reorganization of the global industrial chain. In this regard, my country's industrial textile industry still needs to alleviate pressure through market diversification, cost optimization and supply chain management in the short term, and build global competitiveness with technological innovation, green transformation and brand building as the core in the long term. The industry needs to find a balance between "strategic determination" and "tactical flexibility" to transform external pressure into a driving force for industrial upgrading.